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Explained
Asian handicap explained: the line table, the price and the margin
Asian handicap is the market where the sharp money prices football. Two outcomes, no draw, lines in quarter steps and a margin that usually sits below 1X2. The basics are in the glossary. This page takes the next step: the full line table and how to work out a line's fair price from 1X2. And how you measure the margin, and when a better line is worth more than better odds.
By Filip, founder of Edge Analytics
In brief
- What does Asian handicap mean? A handicap without the draw as an outcome of its own. The team you bet on gets a head start or a deficit in goals, in whole, half or quarter steps. The market has only two outcomes.
- How does a −0.75 handicap settle if the team wins by one goal? A half win. Half of the stake is on −0.5 and wins, and the other half is on −1 and has its stake returned.
- What happens on the zero line if the match ends in a draw? Stake returned. Zero is the same as betting on which team is better, with a draw treated as void.
Why the pro bets on handicaps instead of 1X2
A 1X2 bet has three outcomes and the bookmaker puts a margin on all three. An Asian handicap has two. Fewer outcomes give a lower margin, and you can measure it. Add up one divided by each of the odds, subtract one hundred per cent and you see what the bookmaker takes.
The second reason is liquidity. In the biggest leagues, the handicap market moves the most money at the bookmakers that set the price for the rest. That is why it is also the one that corrects itself fastest. If you want to know what the market thinks about a match, you look at the line, not at 1X2.
The third is that the draw disappears as an outcome of its own. On a zero line your stake is returned in a draw. You only bet on the question of which team is better, with a head start that evens out the difference.
The line table, from −2 to +2
The line applies to the team you bet on. Minus means the team gives away goals and plus means it receives goals. Whole lines can return the stake, half lines are always decided, and quarter lines split the stake across the two nearest lines.
−2: a win by three or more is a win. A win by exactly two returns the stake. Anything else is a loss. −1.75: a win by three or more is a full win. A win by exactly two is a half win. Anything else is a loss. −1.5: a win by two or more is a win. Anything else is a loss. −1.25: a win by two or more is a win. A win by exactly one goal is a half loss. Anything else is a loss.
−1: a win by two or more is a win. A win by exactly one goal returns the stake. Anything else is a loss. −0.75: a win by two or more is a full win. A win by exactly one goal is a half win. Anything else is a loss. −0.5: a win is a win. A draw or a loss is a loss. −0.25: a win is a win. A draw is a half loss. A loss is a loss.
Zero: a win is a win. A draw returns the stake. A loss is a loss. +0.25: a win is a win. A draw is a half win. A loss is a loss. +0.5: a win or a draw is a win. A loss is a loss. +0.75: a win or a draw is a win. A loss by exactly one goal is a half loss. A bigger loss is a loss.
+1: a win or a draw is a win. A loss by exactly one goal returns the stake. A bigger loss is a loss. +1.25: a win or a draw is a win. A loss by one goal is a half win. A bigger loss is a loss. +1.5: a loss by one goal or better is a win. A bigger loss is a loss. +1.75: a loss by one goal or better is a win. A loss by exactly two is a half loss. A bigger loss is a loss. +2: a loss by one goal or better is a win. A loss by exactly two returns the stake. A bigger loss is a loss.
How to work out a quarter line
A quarter line is two bets in one. A stake of SEK 1,000 on −0.75 is SEK 500 on −0.5 and SEK 500 on −1, both at the same odds. If the team wins by exactly one goal, the half on −0.5 wins and the half on −1 has its stake returned. That is called a half win.
Always work out the four outcomes before you place the bet. They are a win by two or more, a win by one, a draw and a loss. Write down what each outcome gives in SEK. Anyone who cannot do that gets the halves wrong, and the halves are where the margin is hidden.
Price the line from 1X2
A fair 1X2 gives the probabilities for a home win, a draw and an away win. From them you get the zero line directly. The home team on zero wins with the probability of a home win and loses with the probability of an away win. In a draw the stake is returned. The fair odds are then the away probability plus the home probability, divided by the home probability.
Here is an example. Fair probabilities are 50 per cent for the home win, 25 for the draw and 25 for the away win. On the zero line the home team wins in 50 cases. It loses in 25 of the 75 cases where the stake is not returned. The fair odds are 75 divided by 50, so 1.50. A bookmaker that offers 1.55 on the home team at zero gives a better price than the market.
For half lines you need the goal distribution, not just 1X2. The −0.5 line is the same thing as a home win, so the fair odds are one divided by the home probability. That is 2.00 in the example. The −1.5 line needs the probability of a win by two or more. You get it from a Poisson model or from the market's own lines. Always compare with the fair closing odds afterwards.
The margin: how to measure it on a two-way market
A handicap market has two outcomes. The margin is one divided by one of the odds plus one divided by the other, minus one. If the bookmaker gives 1.95 on both sides of a line, the margin is 2.6 per cent. If it gives 1.90 and 1.90, the margin is 5.3 per cent. The margin calculator does it for you.
Compare that figure with the same bookmaker's 1X2 on the same match. The difference is what you pay for the third outcome. At many bookmakers that difference is larger than the value in your whole bet. Then the handicap is the right market, even if you actually wanted to bet on 1X2.
The margin also varies with the line. The main line, the one closest to 50 per cent on both sides, usually has the lowest margin. Alternative lines far from the middle cost more. Anyone who wants −2.5 on a big favourite often pays twice as much margin as someone who takes the main line.
Line or odds: what is worth most
Two bookmakers rarely give the same line at the same price. One gives −1 at 1.95, another −0.75 at 1.85. Which is better? The answer depends on how likely it is that the team wins by exactly one goal, because that outcome separates the lines. In a model with 1.8 goals against 0.9, −0.75 at 1.85 is clearly better. That corresponds to −1 at about 2.17.
A quarter line is worth more than most people think. Take a simple Poisson model with 1.3 goals per team. The step from zero to +0.25 is worth about 15 per cent on the odds. The step from −0.25 to zero is worth about 18 per cent. Around a favourite's main line the steps are just as large. Calculate instead of guessing: take the goal distribution, work out the expected value for both bets and take the higher one. It is ten minutes of work that separates the person who calculates from the person who bets.
The line moves too, and it moves before the odds. When the market moves from −0.75 to −1 on the main line, something has happened: an injury, a starting eleven, big money. The odds movements on our pages show where 1X2 has moved most. The line at the bookmakers moves in the same direction, usually earlier.
Where to find the lines in Sweden now
Pinnacle was the reference for the handicap market, and since October 2026 the bookmaker has not accepted Swedish customers. Several Swedish-licensed bookmakers offer Asian handicap in the biggest leagues, with fewer lines and a higher margin than the reference had. Smarkets offers handicaps on the exchange at the market price minus commission, where there is liquidity.
Our odds comparison shows 1X2 at sixteen Swedish-licensed bookmakers, and the match pages store the closing odds. Use them to work out the fair price for each match, and then compare the handicap line at your bookmaker with it. The value is more often in the line than in the odds.
Do you have a problem with gambling?
If you find it hard to control your gambling, or have had problems with gambling, you should not gamble at all. That also applies with a tool, because even a tool that calculates correctly can become a way into gambling that takes over.
Always seek help. Stödlinjen, the Swedish gambling helpline, answers on 020-81 91 00, free of charge and anonymously. Through Spelpaus you can exclude yourself from all gambling with companies licensed in Sweden. Gambling for money is only for those aged 18 or over.
How we produced the information
The line table follows the rules that apply at all bookmakers with Asian handicap. The same goes for the rules on half win, half loss and stake returned. They match the glossary page. The worked examples are calculated by us with fair probabilities stated in the text. The value of a quarter line is calculated in a Poisson model with independent goals. The model uses 1.3 against 1.3 and 1.8 against 0.9, with fair odds per line.
The margin formula for two outcomes is the same as on the margin page. The information about Pinnacle is in the guide on Pinnacle leaving Sweden. The information about Smarkets is in the Smarkets guide. Both have sources.
Frequently asked questions about Asian handicap
What does Asian handicap mean?
A handicap without the draw as an outcome of its own. The team you bet on gets a head start or a deficit in goals, in whole, half or quarter steps. The market has only two outcomes.
How does a −0.75 handicap settle if the team wins by one goal?
A half win. Half of the stake is on −0.5 and wins, and the other half is on −1 and has its stake returned.
What happens on the zero line if the match ends in a draw?
Stake returned. Zero is the same as betting on which team is better, with a draw treated as void.
How do I calculate the margin on an Asian handicap?
One divided by one of the odds plus one divided by the other, minus one. Odds of 1.95 and 1.95 give 2.6 per cent.
Is Asian handicap better than 1X2?
Usually a lower margin and always fewer outcomes. Whether it is better for your bet depends on what you want to bet on. If you only want the answer to which team is better, the handicap is the right market.
Which Swedish-licensed bookmakers offer Asian handicap?
Several of the Swedish-licensed bookmakers offer it in the biggest leagues, with fewer lines than Pinnacle had. Smarkets offers handicaps on the exchange. Compare line and price before you choose, not just the odds.
How do I price an Asian handicap line from 1X2?
The zero line comes from the probabilities of a win and a loss, with a draw treated as void. The −0.5 line is the same as a win. Whole and larger lines need the goal distribution, from a Poisson model or from the market's own lines.