Arbitrage betting in Sweden in practice

How many opportunities there are, measured

Over the last 30 days, the system found a median of 510 opportunities a day at Swedish-licensed bookmakers. Each opportunity is counted once, no matter how long it stays. That is how it looked on 21 October 2026, and today's figure is on the surebets page.

A typical opportunity returns less than you think. Over the last 30 days, each day's median opportunity sat between 1.1 and 2.8 per cent. The median across the days is 1.7 per cent, which is 170 kr on 10 000 kr split across the legs. Since February the median is 1.2 per cent. Most opportunities sit between one and three per cent. Opportunities above five per cent exist, but they are few, and they close fastest.

Since February 2026 the system has saved 61 969 opportunities. That is the data behind the numbers on this page, and it grows every day.

How long an opportunity lasts

Half of all opportunities are gone within five minutes. Of the 61 969 opportunities since February, 49.3 per cent were still there after five minutes. Fewer were left after fifteen minutes, and a small remainder after an hour. An opportunity dies when one of the bookmakers corrects its odds, and that is usually the bookmaker that was wrong.

That changes the whole approach. An arbitrage is not something you find in the evening and place tomorrow. You must see it as it appears and have accounts and a balance at both bookmakers. You must also place both legs within a minute or so. Anyone who arrives late places one leg at the right odds and the other at worse odds. Then you have an ordinary bet with a view you did not want.

That is why our public list is delayed by 30 minutes. It shows how the market looked, not which bets to place now. The tool shows the opportunities in real time. The difference between the two is the difference between reading about arbitrage and doing it.

What an opportunity actually returns

Do the maths on the median, not on the dream scenario. 1.7 per cent of 10 000 kr is 170 kr. If you have time for ten opportunities a day and get them placed, that is 1 700 kr on paper. That is before rounding, before being limited and before the leg that did not go through.

Rounding eats some of it. Bookmakers take stakes in whole kronor. You do not want to place 4 937 kr at a bookmaker that then wonders why. Rounded stakes give uneven payouts, and you have to accept that one outcome pays a little more than the other. Work out the stakes in the arbitrage calculator before you place them.

Also allow for a leg being refused. A bookmaker can cut your maximum stake the second you place the bet. That leaves you with an open leg. Then you hedge it at a third bookmaker or on Smarkets at the price available. You take a small loss instead of a big one.

Being limited is the real cost

If a bookmaker sees that you only bet where its own odds were wrong, it draws the conclusion quickly. Usually you get limited: the maximum stake is cut to a few tens of kronor, sometimes after a couple of weeks. The account is rarely closed, but it becomes useless for arbitrage.

That makes the number of accounts the decisive resource. A minimum of five accounts is needed to get the opportunities placed. Ten accounts give you some room when the first ones are limited. Every account must be your own, in your name and with your money. Anything else breaks the bookmakers' terms and the law.

What extends an account's life is not looking like an arbitrageur. Rounded stakes, a few ordinary bets now and then, no stakes at exactly the maximum limit. And no chasing the bookmaker's obvious pricing errors in obscure leagues. The glossary explains what being limited means and what to do when it happens.

Smarkets as the other side

Many opportunities in Sweden arise between a bookmaker with regular odds and the exchange. Smarkets is the only betting exchange with a Swedish licence. There you can lay an outcome instead of looking for a second bookmaker. The commission is 2 per cent on net winnings and must go into the calculation.

The exchange does not limit winners, because it takes no position against you. That makes it the account that is always still there when the bookmakers start cutting your maximum stake. The constraint is liquidity: on small Swedish markets, often only a few hundred kronor is on offer at the right price.

Arbitrage as part of a system, not as the whole

Anyone who only does arbitrage burns through accounts fast and gets little out of each opportunity. Anyone who uses the opportunities as part of something bigger gets more out of the same accounts. An arbitrage is a good way to turn over a bonus bet with low risk. It is also a good way to place the first bet on a new account.

A pro's approach in Sweden usually looks like this. Value betting as the base, where expected value decides and you can live with losing individual bets. Arbitrage when the opportunities appear and the accounts can take it. Bonuses and boosts when the bookmakers give away value. All of it measured against the closing odds, so you know it was the price, not luck, that gave the result.

Winnings at Swedish-licensed bookmakers are tax-free for you as a player. Arbitrage is legal, but the bookmakers' terms give them the right to limit you. That is the game you are getting into, with your eyes open.

What the tool does and does not do

The tool reads the odds at Swedish-licensed bookmakers and recalculates every market. It shows each opportunity the second it appears, with the stakes divided. It also says which leg to place first: the one at the bookmaker that will probably correct itself fastest.

It does not place the bets for you, and it cannot stop a bookmaker from limiting you. Nor can it see your maximum stake at each bookmaker. What you get is time: seeing the opportunity while it lasts, instead of reading about it afterwards.

Do you have a problem with gambling?

If you find it hard to control your gambling, or have had problems with gambling, you should not gamble at all. That also applies with a tool, because even a tool that calculates correctly can become a way into gambling that takes over.

Always seek help. Stödlinjen, the Swedish gambling helpline, answers on 020-81 91 00, free of charge and anonymously. Through Spelpaus you can exclude yourself from all gambling with companies licensed in Sweden. Gambling for money is only for those aged 18 or over.

Common questions about arbitrage in Sweden